are we heading for a new wave?

The news of recent weeks, between elections and the war in Ukraine, has relegated the Covid-19 away from the spotlight and daily concerns. The virus, however, continues to circulate, and is again in progress in France. The prospect of a seventh wave is becoming clearer.

In our neighbors, Portugal has experienced a new wave related to Omicron variants BA.4 and BA.5. In the United Kingdom, cases and hospitalizations are on the rise. In Germany, Health Minister Karl Lauterbach made a sad statement last week: The wave announced for the summer has unfortunately become a reality. The incidence rate is 472.4 per 100,000 inhabitants.

And in France? Here, too, the number of cases has been on the rise since the beginning of June. The number of daily cases reported by Santé publique France is difficult to interpret in recent times, due to the presence of public holidays and seizure and catch-up problems, which has been made particularly accidentally.

49% increase in one week

By smoothing the daily cases over 7 slippery days, you get a slightly more readable average. As of June 20, there were an average of 46,146 daily contaminations over the past 7 days.

This indicator is rising sharply. One week earlier, on June 13, there were an average of 31,000 cases a day. The rise is 49%…

Doesn’t the arrival of a new naked wave seem blatant to you in the chart above? It may be a matter of scale, due to the January 2022 peak that crushes the curve.

If we take a step back and start the curve in July 2020, after the first wave of spring and at the time of the generalization of the tests, we realize that the beginning of the current 7th wave already reaches the peak level of autumn 2020:

At a press conference on Tuesday, June 21, 2022, the Ministry of Health described the trend as moderate epidemic recovery.

The current rise coincides with the extension in France of variants BA.4 and BA.5, which are underlines of Omicron.

According to the Flash evolution of the most evolving variants in France, the BA.2 d’Omicron variant was still the majority in France (72% of interpretable sequences), but tended to be gradually replaced by BA.5.

The latter accounted for 24.2% of the interpretable sequences in week 23, compared with 13.3% in the previous week.

Also read: Should we fear a wave of Covid was with the new Omicron variants?

An increase throughout the territory

According to consolidated data released on D + 3 by Santé publique France, the national incidence rate was 459 cases per 100,000 inhabitants for the period from 10 to 17 June 2022. This indicator is also up 50%.

The increase is manifested throughout the Hexagon, with Île-de-France currently experiencing the highest levels:

Here is the evolution by department, the increase is general:

Small resumption of hospitalizations

The arrival of Omicron has changed our relationship to the epidemic and public health measures. More contagious, but less virulent than the previous coronavirus, it does not appeal to the same response of public health that Alpha, Beta, Delta … It is good for this reason that no restrictions have been taken while we are 50,000 cases per day. The previous confinements, it should be recalled, had been triggered once the threshold of 5,000 cases per day had been reached. It was 10 times less!

With Omicron and its variants, the compass is no longer the number of cases and the level of hospitalizations. In the immediate future, in France, there was a clear rise in hospitalizations for or with Covid-19 and resuscitation placements:

However, according to Santé publique France, the number of patients hospitalized and more. In the last three weeks, the number of new hospital admissions with a diagnosis of Covid-19 has been rising again from 2,441 in week 21 to 2,794 in week 23.

In the United Kingdom, the rise of BA.5 was accompanied by a 33% increase in hospitalizations. In Portugal, the first European country to be affected by BA.5, the number of hospitalizations rose almost to the level of the previous wave.

Comparisons with other countries are, however, to be made with caution. Mircea T. Sofonea, an epidemiologist and lecturer at the University of Montpellier, recalls that these comparisons are delicate. as current traffic depends, in addition to the health measures in place, on the epidemiological and immunological history, which is increasingly differentiated.

And vaccination?

The epidemic recovery is currently described as moderate By the Ministry of Health, but health authorities are concerned about the few second vaccine recalls injected. Of the more than 8.8 million people eligible for a fourth dose (those over 60 and the immunocompromised), less than 2.2 million made the second recall.

Professor Alain Fischer, Chair of the Vaccine Strategy Guidance Council, also spoke on Tuesday 21 June 2022 a small resumption of hospitalizations. He pointed out at a press briefing that the significant decrease Of the protection generated by the first recall justify compliance A new dose in the elderly for protects them from severe forms until the fall.

Covid19. New cases increase by 49% in one week: are we heading for a new wave?

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