the still uncertain effects of the reform

Return to surpluses for Unedic. After a crisis of the Covid that has financially marked the unemployment insurance system, almost doubling its debt (from 37 billion euros in 2019 to 64 billion in 2021), the improvement of the economic situation is felt in accounts, with a projected surplus of 2.5 billion in 2022.

The embellishment is expected to continue in the coming years, with 3.1 billion surpluses in 2023 and 4.2 billion in 2024. “The French economy continues to benefit from the positive momentum of the source of the crisis”, assures Christophe Valentie, CEO of l’Unédic.

Admittedly, the slowdown in growth will have an effect, as will the slowdown in job creation. But inflation could play a positive role in unemployment insurance accounts: “It leads to an increase in the payroll, so our revenue is based on wages,” Christophe Valentie explains.

10 billion in debt in three years

As a result of this return to surpluses, Unedic can begin debt relief by repaying € 1.9 billion in debt by 2022. Partly, which is still well above its pre-crisis level), for a level of improvement in and for 16% on the unemployment insurance reform, not the last elements are in force last November.

“Over three years, we will get rid of 10 billion euros: this amount will be due to two-thirds of the reform,” acknowledges Patricia Ferrand, president of l’Unédic, where she represents the CFDT. Moreover, the union cannot see the positive effects on the regime’s finances, it remains much more cautious about the consequences on unemployment and, in particular, on the unemployed.

“We are currently focusing on last year’s impact assessment.” make sure. It did provide for the savings made, but also for the consequent reductions in the compensation of many unemployed people.

A study of the effects of the ongoing reform

In its forecast for the next few years, the Unédic table on stabilizing the number of unemployed unemployed around 2.4 million and on a gradual decline in the unemployment rate to 7% in 2024. “But as symbolic as it is, the percentage of unemployed people who are naked is not saying anything about the possible hidden effects of the reform: even a stabilization did not mean that the reform has no impact. Patricia Ferrand insisted. This says nothing, for example, about the level of compensation for the unemployed. »

Very slight rise in unemployment in April

A study of the effects of the reform is underway, which will be all the more necessary as unions and employers will soon have to negotiate new compensation rules. The decree governing unemployment insurance is due to expire at the end of October, so the government has until the end of June to send the social partners the framing document that will serve as the basis for the negotiation.

“If there are negotiations, we need to know the effects of the reform in a rigorous, comprehensive and consolidated manner.” The following spoke: Patricia Ferrand, Vice-President, Jean-Eudes Tesson, Representative du Medef: “At the moment, we can still discuss again, but would we be able to conclude?” » The question of the extension of the current decree is also on the agenda, but it needs an opinion from the Council of State.

“We can’t negotiate under duress”

For CFDT Secretary General Laurent Berger, the way the government will approach this negotiation will be symbolic of the “New method” announced by Emmanuel Macron. The social partners were scrambled through the previous negotiations, framed in such a way that they could not succeed in the government, which then regained control and imposed its reform.

“We can’t negotiate under duress, the CFDT boss explained on Wednesday, June 8, to the Association of Social Information Journalists. Negotiation, this cannot be “these are the ten conclusions you have to reach”. »

For Unédic, there will also be a question of 19 billion Covid debt due to the emergency measures decided by the government (including partial unemployment). The unemployment insurance scheme considers that it does not have to bear entirely the consequences of expenses which, however effective they may have been for employment, are not complete as a result. One way or another, the state will also have to play its part. The President of the Insurance Board: “On top of that, the social partners are unanimous!” »


Accounts that are improving

For years to comeUnédic expects its revenues to increase (€ 42 billion in 2022; € 42.5 in 2023 and € 43.8 in 2024) as a result of the inflation of the payroll.

Conversely, if job creation stabilizes (+ 79,000 in 2022, + 52,000 in 2023; + 80,000 in 2024), unemployment is expected to fall: 33.2 billion in 2022; 32.8 in 2023, 32.6 in 2024.

Hence a positive balance of accounts (+2.5 billion in 2022, +3.1 billion in 2023 and +4.2 billion in 2024) and a gradual debt relief (61 billion in 2022, 58 in 2023 and 53.7 in 2024) which should even avoid the Unédic to have to borrow in the coming years.


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